NCM warns El Niño likely to persist through early 2027

According to the Saudi Gazette, the National Center for Meteorology (NCM) and the Climate Change Center (CCC) have issued a warning regarding the potential development and persistence of El Niño conditions in the region. Meteorological indicators suggest that these conditions could remain through the end of 2026 and into early 2027, potentially leading to significant shifts in rainfall patterns and temperature fluctuations across Saudi Arabia.

The agencies reported that the country is currently in a neutral phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), with the Niño 3.4 Index recorded at +0.39°C as of July 5. However, current forecast models indicate a high probability of a transition toward El Niño, with expectations that the index could rise to approximately +1.25°C, with the potential to strengthen further. Projections also suggest that the sea surface temperature anomaly could increase from +1.1°C in May to +2.8°C by October.

In terms of immediate regional impact, the NCM highlighted that western Saudi Arabia is expected to face an increased likelihood of rainfall during the upcoming autumn season. This shift in weather patterns brings with it a heightened risk of flash floods, prompting authorities to monitor the situation closely. Residents and travelers in the affected areas are advised to stay updated on official meteorological bulletins as the season progresses.